The armed revolution
in Libya and Syria:
Comparison of Effectiveness
Ali Hashem
As Libyans celebrate their first
general election after the rein of col. Moammar Gaddafi, Syrians are still
wondering what's next with all the complications surrounding the fate of both
the revolution and the regime, thanks to the diversity of each side's
alliances, and mainly because of the sectarian lineups which many warn could
lead to an unprecedented civil war.
Both Libya and Syria had a long path to
walk; despite the militarization of both revolutions from the beginning, the
numbers of people killed were dramatically more than Tunisia and Egypt. Even
those of Yemen are still far behind the toll that isn’t expected to tap a
finish point in the near future.
In Libya where I covered the revolution
early enough to see the rebels moving from city to city in the eastern part of
the country, I witnessed the evolution of their military capabilities that were
less effective in direct encounters with the Gaddafi brigades.
Gaddafi's assault on Benghazi on March
18 was a clear indicator that the rebels needed NATO strikes to survive the fight-
and were it not for the airstrikes their task would have been much harder; some
might say impossible.
Libyan rebels weren’t able to move from
one town to another without aerial cover, for many reasons. One is the lack of
training and the absence of military experience. They were mostly young men who
left their schools and businesses to fight for freedom using Kalashnikovs,
RPGs, and AA's mounted on trucks All they had in sight was putting an end to 42
years of dictatorship, where one man named Moammar Gaddafi had the entirety of
a country like Libya under his arm.
One of the clearest examples of lack of
effectiveness was the day rebels entered Ajdabiya in late March 2011. After one
week of fighting that didn’t come to an end till Gaddafi posts were erased by
NATO airstrikes, rebels started moving from town to town without any serious
resistance till they arrived at the outskirts of Sirte, Gaddafi's stronghold.
After driving more than 300KM, I was there giving a live interview to my
channel when it started raining Katyusha rockets, the closest to me was a mere
100m away. We packed and ran for our lives, and so did the rebels, causing
traffic jam. This was because NATO decided not to intervene on that occasion.
Days after returning from Libya, I had
to cover the Syrian revolution from the Lebanese side of the border in late
April. What I saw was a clear indication that the peaceful movement that had
started only a month before was going deep into the militarization, but here,
it's no Libya.
Syrians are known to have a strong
army, and every young man must serve two years as part of the compulsory
military duty, the matter which makes most Syrian men trained soldiers even if
they are not actively in the service. Besides, in the Levant, it's common to
have weapons at home. This is part of the tribal and cultural belief that guns
are essential for preserving dignity.
The rebels of Syria were quick in
forming their armed groups, later known as the Free Syrian Army that was formed
by defectors, providing an umbrella for all fighters to operate under. The FSA
and its allies were able to secure some areas on the borders with Lebanon,
Jordan, and Turkey as safe pockets and took the city of Homs as headquarter.
All this happened without foreign
intervention or a no-fly zone. The Syrian rebels, mostly Sunni Muslims,
continued their struggle to topple the Alawite regime lead by Bachar Assad, and
with time, their tools started getting more sophisticated, due primarily to the
defections, and to arms smuggling and financial support from several Arab
states.
Weapons in the hands of Syrian rebels
now vary, from Kalashnikov to anti-tank missiles, along with advanced road bombs,
Anti-aircraft and heavy machine guns mounted on trucks. Yet the most dangerous
part is still to come as fears grow that groups affiliated to Al-Qaida from
within the revolution, or others who are pro regime like Hezbollah, might get
access to strategic weapons acquired by the Syrian Army, weapons like long
range missiles and chemical war heads. If this happens, then the path of the
revolution, Syria, and the whole region will change, and the international
alliance to topple the regime will change its objectives, and we will be faced
with a new war on terrorism, this time directly on the borders with Israel.
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